Sequence-of-Returns Risk

How long will my money last?

The same average return, in a different order, can produce wildly different outcomes once you're withdrawing. This is why the years right around retirement matter so much.

Starting portfolio balance

Annual withdrawal rate4%

25-year projection, both scenarios average the same return

Stress-Test My Real Plan

Illustrative only, not advice. Both scenarios use the same simplified alternating-return pattern with an identical long-run average — real markets don't move in a fixed pattern. This is a teaching illustration of sequence-of-returns risk, not a forecast.